“RethinkX is predicting an overnight sensation that will be no less transformative than the Model T’s erasure of the horse and buggy, the printing press’s impact on literacy and one modern tech gadget’s remaking of communication.”
RETHINKX RESOURCES
Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030 (2017)
We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of transportation in history.
About the Report:
Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030
By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS).
Rethinking Transportation shows how TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions in investor value — but also creating trillions in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
James Arbib and Tony Seba (RethinkX), May 2017
Supplementary Material:
Rethinking Transportation: Autonomous, Electric, On-demand Vehicles Factsheet
James Arbib and Tony Seba (RethinkX)
Rethinking Transportation Report References:
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71 U.S. Department of Transportation. 2015. Freight Facts and Figures 2015. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.21949/1501678
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124 ibid.
125 Helms, H., Pehnt, M., Lambrecht, U. and Liebich, A. 2010. Electric Vehicle and Plug-in Hybrid Energy Efficiency and Life Cycle Emissions. 18th International Symposium Transport and Air Pollution: 113—274.
126 Faias, S., Sousa, J., Xavier, L., Ferreira, P. 2011. Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions Evaluation for Electric and Internal Combustion Vehicles using a LCA Approach. International Conference on Renewable Energy and Power Quality 1(9): 1382—1388.
128 Ayre, J. 2017. Tesla Gigafactory Rooftop Solar System To Be 7 Times Larger Than Largest Rooftop Solar System Today. Clean Technica. January 16. Retrieved from https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/16/gigafactory-feature-70-mw-solar-pv-system-document-teslas-recent-january-4-investor-event-reveals/.
129 Apple. 2016. Apple Joins RE100, Announces Supplier Clean Energy Pledges. September 19. Retrieved from https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2016/09/apple-joins-re100-announces-supplier-clean-energy-pledges.html.
130 World Health Organization (WHO). 2016. Ambient Air Pollution: A Global Assessment of Exposure and Burden of Disease. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241511353
131 Measured by individuals’ willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying (OECD. 2014. The Cost of Air Pollution: Health Impacts of Road Transport. OECD Publishing, Paris. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/env/the-cost-of-air-pollution-9789264210448-en.htm).
132 World Health Organization. 2015. Economic Cost of the Health Impact of Air Pollution in Europe: Clean Air, Health and Wealth. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/europe/home?v=welcome.
133 OECD. 2014. The Cost of Air Pollution: Health Impacts of Road Transport. OECD Publishing, Paris. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/env/the-cost-of-air-pollution-9789264210448-en.htm.
134 World Health Organization. 2015. Global Status Report on Road Safety. Retrieved from https://www.afro.who.int/publications/global-status-report-road-safety-2015.
135 Seba, T. 2014. Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. Clean Planet Ventures, California.
136 Noland, E. 2016. Oil: Assessing Global Geopolitical Risks. CME Group. August 31. Retrieved from http://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/oil-assessing-global-geopolitical-risks.html.
137 Politico Magazine. 2016. The Hidden Consequences of the Oil Crash. January 21. Retrieved from http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/oil-crash-hidden-consequences-213550.
138 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).. 2016. How Much Petroleum Does the United States Import and Export? October 4. Retrieved from http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6.
139 Egbue, O. and Long, S. 2011. Critical Issues in the Supply Chain of Lithium for Electric Vehicle Batteries. Engineering Management Journal 24(3): 52-62.
140 Lithium reserves (million tons): Bolivia: 9, Chile: 7.5, US: 6.7, Argentina: 6.5, Australia: 1.7, and China: 5.1. U.S. Geological Survey. 2016. Lithium. Retrieved from https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2016-lithi.pdf.
141 Reuters. 2016. What Price Lithium, the Metal of the Future? June 6. Retrieved from https://fortune.com/2016/06/06/lithium-price-tesla-metal-future/.
142 Home, A. 2016. What Price Lithium, the Metal of the Future? Reuters, June 07. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lithium-batteries-ahome-idUSKCN0YS19D.
143 Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. 2016. Elon Musk: Our Lithium-Ion Batteries Should Be Called Nickel –graphite. June 16. Retrieved from https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/blog-archive/elon-musk-our-lithium-ion-batteries-should-be-called-nickel-graphite/.
144 Qnovo. 2016. The Cost Components of a Lithium-Ion Battery. January 11. Retrieved from https://qnovo.com/82-the-cost-components-of-a-battery/.
145 Lacey, S. 2016. “Stem CTO: Lithium-ion Battery Prices Fell 70% In The Last 18 Months.” Green Tech Media, June 28. Retrieved from https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/stem-cto-weve-seen-battery-prices-fall-70-in-the-last-18-months.
146 Lithium and cobalt experts at Benchmark Minerals. Retrieved from https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/.
147 BYD. 2017. World’s First Mass Produced 40Ft Long Range Battery-Electric Bus. Retrieved from https://en.byd.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/k9mc.pdf.
148 Will L. 2016. “Come as You Are — Lithium, Cobalt and Tesla’s Battery Problem.” Harvard Business Review, November 4. Retrieved from https://d3.harvard.edu/platform-rctom/submission/come-as-you-are-lithium-cobalt-and-teslas-battery-problem/.
149 Petersen, J. 2016. “Electric Vehicle Batteries Face Two Critical Mineral Constraints.” Seeking Alpha, November 30. Retrieved from https://seekingalpha.com/author/john-petersen.
151 Burton, M. 2017. How Does the Hottest Metals Trade Work? First, Find Storage. Bloomberg, January 24. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-24/how-does-the-hottest-metals-trade-work-first-find-a-warehouse.
152 Cobalt Blue Holdings. 2017. Cobalt. Retrieved from https://cobaltblueholdings.com/our-strategy/cobalt/.
154 Power Technology. 2017. Buses and Batteries: A Rising Sector. Retrieved from http://www.power-technology.com/features/featurebuses-and-batteries-a-rising-sector-4904956/.
155 Lambert, F. 2016. Breakdown of Raw Materials in Tesla’s Batteries and Possible Bottlenecks. Electrek, November 01. Retrieved from https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/breakdown-raw-materials-tesla-batteries-possible-bottleneck/.
156 Cardwell, D. 2016. GM and Nissan Reusing Old Electric Car Batteries. The New York Times, June 16. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/17/business/gm-and-nissan-reusing-old-electric-car-batteries.html
157 McIntire-Strasburg, J. 2015. The Electric Vehicle Battery Can and Should Be Recycled. Clean Technica, July 23. Retrieved from https://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/23/electric-vehicle-battery-can-recycled/.
159 (Arcus, C. 2016. Battery Lifetime: How Long Can Electric Vehicle Batteries Last? Clean Technica, May 31. Retrieved from https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/31/battery-lifetime-long-can-electric-vehicle-batteries-last/).
160 UCLA Law and UC Berkeley School of Law. 2014. Reuse and Repower: How to Save Money and Clean the Grid with Second-life Electric Vehicle Batteries. September. Retrieved from https://www.law.berkeley.edu/files/ccelp/Reuse_and_Repower_--_Web_Copy.pdf.
161 Ayre, J. 2016. Recycling EV Batteries More Cost-Competitive than Using for Home Energy Storage – Lux Research Echoes Tesla CTO JB Straubel. Clean Technica, November 24. Retrieved from https://cleantechnica.com/2016/11/24/recycling-ev-batteries-makes-sense-using-home-energy-storage-lux-research-echoes-tesla-cto-jb-straubel/
163 Lambert, F. 2016. Tesla Model S Battery Pack Data Shows Very Little Capacity Loss Over High Mileage. Elecktrek, June 16. Retrieved from https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-data-degradation/.
164 Confirmed in interviews with Chanje Energy and other sources such as Industrial Minerals. 2016. “Dissecting Lithium Battery Technology.” June 02. Retrieved from https://www.fastmarkets.com/industrial-minerals-is-part-of-fastmarkets.
167 Industrial Minerals. 2016. Dissecting lithium battery technology. June 02. Retrieved from https://www.fastmarkets.com/industrial-minerals-is-part-of-fastmarkets.
170 Electric Vehicle News. 2016. Chevy Bolt EV Requires Zero Maintenance. December 12. Retrieved from http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2016/12/the-chevy-bolt-ev-requires-zero_12.html
171 Proterra. 2017. Unparalleled Durability. Retrieved from https://www.proterra.com/performance/durability/.
173 (Edgerton, J. 2017. Cars People Keep for 10 Years. CBS News, January 05. Retrieved from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/10-cars-people-keep-for-10-years/).
176 Cartrack. 2016. Integrated Annual Report. Retrieved from https://www.cartrack.us/support-and-legal/terms-and-conditions.
177 Viereckl, R., Ahleman, D., Koster, A., Jursch, S. 2015. Connected Car Study 2015: Racing Ahead with Autonomous Cars and Digital Innovation. Price Waters Coopers, December 16. Retrieved from http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/reports/connected-car-2016-study.
179 Ramsey, M. 2015. Self-driving Cars Could Cut Down on Accidents, Study Says. The Wall Street Journal, March 5. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/self-driving-cars-could-cut-down-on-accidents-study-says-1425567905.
180 Securing America’s Future Energy (SAE). Commission on Autonomous Vehicle Testing and Safety. 2017. January 5. Retrieved from https://secureenergy.org/commission-on-autonomous-vehicle-testing-and-safety-releases-recommendations-for-industry-led-regulatory-framework/.
181 Hawkins, A. 2017. Tesla’s Crash Rate Dropped 40 Percent After Autopilot Was Installed, Feds Say. The Verge, January 19. Retrieved from https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14326258/teslas-crash-rate-dropped-40-percent-after-autopilot-was-installed-feds-say
182 Brian Wang. 2016. Intel will deliver 100X increase in deep learning training. Next Big Future, November 26. Retrieved from https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/11/intel-will-deliver-100x-increase-in.html.
183 The Economist. 2016. Autonomous Car Insurance: Look, No Claims! September 22. Retrieved from here.
184 Gonder, J., Earleywine, M., and Sparks, W. 2012. Analyzing Vehicle Fuel Saving Opportunities through Intelligent Driver Feedback. SAE International Journal of Passenger Cars — Electronic Electrical Systems 5(2):450-461.
185 (Johnson, C. and Walker, J. 2016. Peak Car Ownership: Market Opportunity of Electric Automated Mobility Services. Rocky Mountain Institute. Retrieved from https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Mobility_PeakCarOwnership_Report2017.pdf).
186 Seba, T. 2014. Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. Clean Planet Ventures, California
187 Wikipedia. Swanson’s law. Accessed April 10. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson's_law.
188 Mahapatra, S. 2016. New low solar price record set in Chile – 2.91c per kWh! Clean Technica, August 18. Retrieved from https://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/18/new-low-solar-price-record-set-chile-2-91%C2%A2-per-kwh/.
189 Kurzweil. 2001. The Law of Accelerating Returns. March 21. Retrieved from https://www.thekurzweillibrary.com/the-law-of-accelerating-returns.
190 McAlone, N. 2015. This man invented the digital camera in 1975 – and his bosses at Kodak never let it see the light of day. Business Insider, August 17. Retrieved from https://www.businessinsider.com/this-man-invented-the-digital-camera-in-1975-and-his-bosses-at-kodak-never-let-it-see-the-light-of-day-2015-8.
191 The Economist, 2012. The last Kokak moment? Jan 14. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/node/21542796.
192 Seba, T. 2014. Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. Clean Planet Ventures, California
193 Wikipedia. Disruptive innovation. Accessed April 10, 2017. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation.
194 AAPL Investors. 2017. iPhone US Pricing History. Retrieved from http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/iphone/pricing/
195 Virki, T. 2007. Nokia’s cheap phone tops electronics chart. Reuters, May 3. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nokia-history-idUSL0262945620070503.
196 Seba, T. 2014. Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. Clean Planet Ventures, California
197 Downes, L., and Nunes, P. 2013. Big-Bang Disruption. March, Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2013/03/big-bang-disruption.
198 Shafer, M., Smith, H., and Linder, J. 2005. The Power of Business Models. February. Business Horizons 48(3):199-207.
199 Sisario, B., and Russel, K. 2016. In Shift to Streaming, Music Business Has Lost Billions. The New York Times, March 24. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/25/business/media/music-sales-remain-steady-but-lucrative-cd-sales-decline.html.
200 McHaney, S. 2015. In the age of streaming music, just how much is a listen worth? NPR, February 4. Retrieved from http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/age-streaming-music-just-much-listen-worth/.
201 Consumer Technology Association. 2016. IoT is getting much smarter. i3, March 21. Retrieved from https://www.cta.tech/News/i3/Articles/2016/March-April/IoT-is-Getting-Much-Smarter.aspx.
202 Wikipedia, Internet protocol suite. Accessed April 10, 2017. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_protocol_suite.
203 IBM. Understand the fundamentals of IBM Blockchain. Accessed April 10, 2017. Retrieved from https://www.ibm.com/blockchain.
204 ROS. About ROS. Accessed April 10, 2017. Retrieved from http://www.ros.org/about-ros/.
205 Udacity. 2017. Free Course: Artificial Intelligence for Robotics by Georgia Tech. Retrieved from https://www.udacity.com/course/artificial-intelligence-for-robotics--cs373.
206 Udacity. 2017. Self-Driving Car Challenge. Retrieved from https://www.udacity.com/didi-challenge.
207 OSVehicle. EDIT: a new modular self-driving car, in white-label. Accessed on April 10. Retrieved from https://www.osvehicle.com/.
208 Wikipedia. Economies of scale. Accessed on April 10. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_scale.
209 Oremus, W. 2016. Tech Companies Are Dominating the Stock Market as Never Before. Slate, July 29. Retrieved from https://slate.com/business/2016/07/the-world-s-5-most-valuable-companies-apple-google-microsoft-amazon-facebook.html.
210 Fiegerman, S. 2012. The Experts Speak: Here’s what people predicted when the iPhone came out. Business Insider, June 29. Retrieved from https://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-predictions-from-2007-2012-6.
211 Lunden, I. 2015. 6.1B Smartphone Users Globally by 2020, Overtaking Basic Fixed Phone Subscriptions. Tech Crunch, June 2. Retrieved from https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/02/6-1b-smartphone-users-globally-by-2020-overtaking-basic-fixed-phone-subscriptions/.
212 Ibid.
213 InfoPlease. 2017. Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950 – 2050. Retrieved from https://www.infoplease.com/world/population/total-population-world-decade-1950-2050.
214 Kamath, M. 2015. To reach 50 million users Telephone took 75 years, Internet took 4 years however Angry Birds took only 35 days!! TechWorm, March 13. Retrieved from https://www.techworm.net/2015/03/to-reach-50-million-users-telephone-took-75-years-internet-took-4-years-angry-birds-took-only-35-days.html.
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