RETHINKX RESOURCES

Rethinking Food & Agriculture 2020-2030 (2019)

We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of agriculture in history.

 

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About the Report:

Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030: The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming

By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt. All other livestock industries will suffer a similar fate, while the knock-on effects for crop farmers and businesses throughout the value chain will be severe.  
Rethinking Food and Agriculture shows how the modern food disruption, made possible by rapid advances in precision biology and an entirely new model of production we call Food-as-Software, will have profound implications not just for the industrial agriculture industry, but for the wider economy, society, and the environment.
 
Catherine Tubb and Tony Seba (RethinkX), September 2019
 
 
 
 
References:
 
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155 Mallin, M. A. & Cahoon, L. B. (2003, May). Industrialized Animal Production—A Major Source of Nutrient and Microbial Pollution to Aquatic Ecosystems. Population and Environment, 24(5). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023690824045
 
156 Khan, S., Loyola, C., Dettling, J., Hester, J., & Moses, R. (2019, February 27). Comparative environmental LCA of the Impossible Burger with conventional ground beef burger. Retrieved from here.
 
157 Nielsen, P.H., Oxenbøll, K. M., Wenzel, H. (2006). Cradleto-Gate Environmental Assessment of Enzyme Products Produced Industrially in Denmark by Novozymes A/S. Int J LCA, OnlineFirst. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/lca2006.08.265.1.
 
158 Caliando, B. J. & Voight, C. A. (2015). Targeted DNA degradation using a CRISPR device stably carried in the host genome. Nature Communications, 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/ ncomms7989. Sarabjeet Singh Ahluwalia & Dinesh Goyal (2013) Microbial Waste Biomass for Removal of Chromium(VI) from Chrome Effluent, Bioremediation Journal, 17:3, 190-199, https://doi.org/10.1080/10889868.2013.807770
 
159 US FDA. (2017, December 10). Steroid Hormone Implants Used for Growth in Food-Producing Animals. Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/product-safety-information/steroid-hormone-implants-used-growth-food-producing-animals.
 
160 Ferris, R. (2015, May 12). Steroids for cattle causing sex changes in fish. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/12/steroids-for-cattle-causing-sex-changes-in-fish.html.
 
161 Pollan, M. (2002). Power Steer. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/31/magazine/power-steer.html
 
162 Biswas, S., Shapiro, C. A., Kranz, W. L, Mader T. L., Shelton, D. P., Snow, D. D., … & Ensley, S. (2013, August). Current knowledge on the environmental fate, potential impact, and management of growth-promoting steroids used in the US beef cattle industry. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 68(4). https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.68.4.325
 
163 American Farm Bureau Federation. (2019, March 25). Where’s the (hormone-free) beef? Retrieved from https://www.fb.org/market-intel/wheres-the-hormone-free-beef.
 
164 Gross, A. S. (2018, May 1). New film shines light on cattle industry link to Amazon deforestation. Mongabay. Retrieved from https://news.mongabay.com/2018/05/new-film-shines-light-on-cattle-industry-link-to-amazon-deforestation/
 
165 Butler, R. A. (2019, April 1). 10 Rainforest Facts for 2019. Mongabay. Retrieved from https://rainforests.mongabay.com/facts/rainforest-facts.html#8.
 
166 World Wildlife Fund. Deforestation and Forest Degradation. Retrieved from https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation.
 
167 National Geographic. Grassland Threats. Retrieved from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/habitats/grassland-threats/.
 
168 Dudley, N. & Alexander, S. (2017, June 4). Agriculture and Biodiversity: a review. Food, Agriculture and Biodiversity, 2-3, 45-49. Retrieved from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14888386.2017.1351892.
 
169 Gaveau, D. L. A., Sheil, D., Husnayaen, Salim, M. A., Arjasakusuma, S., Ancrenaz, M., … & Meijaard. (2016, September 8). Rapid conversions and avoided deforestation: examining four decades of industrial plantation expansion in Borneo. Scientific Reports, 6, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep32017 (2016)
 
170 Lippert, C. (2018, August 31). These Y Combinator (S18) startups could change farming forever. Medium. Retrieved from https://carllippert.medium.com/these-y-combinator-s18-startups-could-change-farming-forever-601a3b8573c.
 
171 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2018). Causes of Food Poisoning. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/foodborne-germs.html.
 
172 Painter, J. A., Hoekstra, R. M., Ayers, T., Tauxe, R. V., Braden, C. R, Angulo, F. J., & Griffin, P. M. (2013, March). Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses, Hospitalizations, and Deaths to Food Commodities by using Outbreak Data, United States, 1998–2008. Emerg Infect Dis, 19(3), 407-415. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1903.111866.
 
174 Gottlieb, S. (2018, September 14). FDA’s Strategic Approach for Combating Antimicrobial Resistance [Speech]. FDA. Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/news-events/speeches-fda-officials/fdas-strategic-approach-combating-antimicrobial-resistance-09142018. FDA, Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM). (2018, September). Supporting Antimicrobial Stewardship In Veterinary Settings: Goals For Fiscal Years 2019 – 2023. Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/media/115776/download.
 
175 FDA. (2017, December). 2017 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food Producing Animals. Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/media/119332/download. Stockton, B & Davies, M. (2018, December 19). Antibiotic use plummets on US farms after ban on using drugs to make livestock grow faster. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism. Retrieved from https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2018-12-19/antibiotic-use-falls-on-us-farms-after-ban-on-using-drugs-to-make-livestock-grow-faster. Lurie, P. G. (2018, December 18). Antibiotics Sales for Farm Animals Dip Dramatically Following FDA Growth Promotion Ban. Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI). Retrieved from https://www.cspinet.org/news/antibiotics-sales-farm-animals-dip-dramatically-following-fda-growth-promotion-ban-20181218.
 
176 Review on Antimicrobial Resistance. (2016, May). Tackling Drug-Resistant Infections Globally: Final Report And Recommendations. Retrieved from https://amr-review.org/sites/default/files/160518_Final%20paper_with%20cover.pdf
 
177 Waters, H., & Graf, M. (2018, October). America’s Obesity Crisis: The Health and Economic Costs of Excess Weight. The Milken Institute. Retrieved from https://milkeninstitute.org/report/americas-obesity-crisis-health-and-economic-costs-excess-weight
 
178 Institute of Medicine. (2006). Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient Requirements: Proteins and Amino Acids. 145-155. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.17226/11537.
 
 
180 RethinkX estimate, Bureau of Labor Statistics, John Dunham & Associates. Employment estimate includes animal production, slaughter, processing, wholesale and distribution. United Soybean Board (USB). Economic Analysis of Animal Agriculture. Decision Innovation Solutions. Retrieved from https://unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/Economic-Analysis-of-Animal-Agriculture-FINAL-Low-Resolution.pdf.
 
181 Wasley, A. (2018, July 5). Two amputations a week: the cost of working in a U.S. meat plant. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/05/amputations-serious-injuries-us-meat-industry-plant.
 
182 USDA, NASS. (2015). Agriculture Census Highlights. Retrieved from https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2015/Cattle_Highlights.pdf.
 
183 McBride, W. D. & Mathews Jr., K. (2011). The Diverse Structure and Organization of U.S. Beef Cow-Calf Farms. USDA. Retrieved from https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/44530/7611_eib73.pdf?v=0.
 
184 Smith, K. (2018, June 28). Vegan Brand Beyond Meat Triples Production, Creating 100s Of Jobs At New Factory. LIVEKINDLY. Retrieved from https://www.livekindly.com/vegan-brand-beyond-meat-new-factory/. Beyond Meat. (2018, June 28). Beyond Meat Triples Production Footprint. Retrieved from https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/press/beyond-meat-triples-production-footprint-increased-capacity-for-growing-demand.
 
185 Smith, K. (2019, March 11). Vegan Meat Factory To Create 300 New Jobs In Britain. Live Kindly. Retrieved from https://www.livekindly.com/heather-mills-300-new-jobs-vegan-meat-factory/
 
187 US Securities and Exchange Commission. (2019, April 22). Beyond Meat, Inc. Form S-1 Registration Statement. Retrieved from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655210/000162828019004543/beyondmeats-1a5.htm.
 
188 National Beer Sales and Production data. Brewers Association. Retrieved from https://www.brewersassociation.org/statistics-and-data/national-beer-stats/.
 
189 Mad Cow Disease Fast Facts. (2019, June 4). CNN. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/02/health/mad-cow-disease-fast-facts/index.html. Doering, C. (2008, October 7). Mad-cow ban cost U.S. $11bn. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-madcow-beeftrade-exports/mad-cow-ban-cost-u-s-11-billion-in-beef-exports-idUSTRE4969C120081007.
 
190 Bates, C. (2016, February 17). When foot-and-mouth disease stopped the UK in its tracks. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35581830.
 
191 Ramos, S., MacLachlan, M. & Melton, A. (2017). Impacts of the 2014-2015 Highly Pathogenic Avian. Influenza Outbreak on the U.S. Poultry Sector. USDA, ERS. Retrieved from https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/86282/ldpm-282-02.pdf?v=0. Akpan, N. (2019, June 20). To fight the next major pandemic, flu hunters turn to these animals. PBS News Hour. Retrieved from https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/to-fight-the-next-major-pandemic-flu-hunters-turn-to-these-animals
 
192 Dinh, H. & McNeil, S. (2019, June 21). Swine fever in Asia largest animal disease outbreak in history, experts say. Global News. Retrieved from https://globalnews.ca/news/5417067/swine-fever-china-pork/
 
193 Hervey, A. (2018, April 5). I Like My Steak Lab-Grown, NotGrass Fed. FutureCrunch. Retrieved from https://medium.com/future-crunch/i-like-my-steak-lab-grown-not-grass-fed-ab78480c85db
 
194 Compassion in World Farming. Strategic Plan 2018-2022. Retrieved from https://assets.ciwf.org/media/7432824/ciwf_strategic-plan-revise18-lr2.pdf
 
195 American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA). Factory Farms. Retrieved from https://www.aspca.org/protecting-farm-animals. Reese, J. (2017, October). Survey of U.S. Attitudes Towards Animal Farming and Animal-Free Food October 2017. Sentience Institute. Retrieved from https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/animal-farming-attitudes-survey-2017#ftnt4.
 
196 Lubin, G. (2017, February 8) The U.S. is making a big shift away from factory farming. Business Insider. Retrieved from https://www.businessinsider.com/factory-farming-on-the-decline-2017-2. Animal Welfare Institute. (2018). Legal Protection for Animals on Farms. Animal Welfare Institute. Retrieved from https://awionline.org/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/FA-AWI-LegalProtections-AnimalsonFarms-110714.pdf. California Proposition 12, Farm Animal Confinement Initiative. (2018). BallotPedia. Retrieved from https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_12,_Farm_Animal_Confinement_Initiative_(2018)
 
197 Association of Brazilian Beef Exporters. (2016, September 2). Brazilian Livestock Profile: Annual Report. Retrieved from http://www.brazilianbeef.org.br/NewsText.aspx?id=1489.
 
 
 
201 Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) cover the difference between American farmers’ cost of production and prevailing international prices. Grey, Clark, Shih and Associates. (2018). Retrieved from http://www.greyclark.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/US-Subsidies-Post-2014-Farm-Bill-FEB-2018.pdf.
 
202 Moon, E. (2019, January 10). What Will The U.S. Government Do With 1.4 Billion Pounds Of Cheese? Pacific Standard. Retrieved from https://psmag.com/economics/what-will-the-us-government-do-with-1-4-billion-pounds-of-cheese.
 
203 U.S. Popper, N. (2019, February 9). You Call That Meat? Not So Fast, Cattle Ranchers Say. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/09/technology/meat-veggie-burgers-lab-produced.html. Heid, M. (2016, January 8). Experts Say Lobbying Skewed the U.S. Dietary Guidelines. TIME. Retrieved from here.
 
204 García, L. (2019, June 11). Along came Spiber: How synthetic proteins are weaving a new era in materials. Synbiobeta. Retrieved from https://synbiobeta.com/along-came-spiber-how-synthetic-proteins-are-weaving-a-new-era-in-materials/. Spiber. Background: 11 years of technological innovation. Retrieved from https://spiber.inc/en/endeavor.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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