Myth: There is not enough lithium to make all the electric cars we need.
False. Robotaxis can have a high utilization per vehicle, so we will not need to replace cars one-for-one.
Moreover, there are batteries that use very little lithium.
Explore the evidence...
- Our discussions with mineral experts suggest that the supply volumes of lithium and other minerals required to meet the demand curves shown in our models are achievable. See p30 of our Rethinking Transportation report to learn more about the mineral supply for batteries
- Battery producers have been learning how to use fewer resources and less energy to produce a given unit (kWh) of energy storage. Therefore, the energy footprint of the production of A-EV batteries has already improved and will likely continue to improve on an exponential basis. Read p53 of our Rethinking Transportation report to find out more
- Current global lithium reserves exceed 30 million tons, (Source - U.S. Geological Survey 2017) and our estimates calculate that 1 million tons of lithium will be required, per year, by 2030. Mineral supply is often seen as the potential key supply constraint, as the processes involved in opening a new lithium or cobalt mine and developing the attendant battery-grade refining capacity are complex and can take about three years. But our discussions with mineral experts suggest that the supply volumes required to meet the demand curves shown in our models are achievable.
- Lithium is a relatively abundant resource, found in many parts of the world. The countries with the largest reserves are currently focused in Bolivia and Chile. But it is found also in Canada, Russia, China, and parts of Africa (U.S. Geological Survey, 2017).
- Under our TaaS (Transport-as-a-service) scenario (see p7 of our Rethinking Transportation Report for a summary of the TaaS disruption), global TaaS vehicle production would be 28 million by 2030. By 2030, batteries will require 0.6kg of Lithium per kWh — an improvement from 0.8kg currently (Interview with Simon Moores, Benchmark Minerals, January 2017).
- The average battery size is 60 kWh in our model, meaning each car would need 36kg of Lithium. Annual lithium requirements would be 1 million tons per year (assuming no recycling).
- Current global identified resources are over 40m tons, though we expect market forces to drive more to be discovered and added to reserves as production increases.
- Even with an increase in rebound effect as transport becomes rapidly more affordable in developing countries, given the timescales involved, we would expect lithium supply to be able to match demand. Lithium demand in our model is within the constraint identified by our experts.
- Lithium is a material stock and, in the EV industry, is only required to build the battery, while oil is a fuel required to operate an ICE vehicle. Lithium ion batteries can also be built with close substitute materials and recycled. Lithium scarcity would only affect new vehicle production. Not having lithium is like not having a new engine; the existing fleet can still operate for years. See p55 of our Rethinking Transportation Report for a deeper understanding of lithium and it's geopolitics
- Our research indicates that the mineral quantities required for battery demand are achievable if there is sufficient advance planning. See p55 of our Transportation report for more information, under ‘lithium ion battery manufacturing’
- To learn more about the energy and resource requirements of this new transportation system read p52-53 “Per-mile CO2 emissions from A-EV production are far lower than ICEs”.
Witness the transformation
Our discussions with mineral experts suggest that the supply volumes of lithium and other minerals required to meet the demand curves shown in our models are achievable.
A-EVs (Autonomous Electric Vehicles) and TaaS (Transport as a Service) will change our transportation system entirely.
Learn more about the disruption and transformation of the transportation sector here
Published on: 12/07/23
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