Does the scarcity of raw materials needed to make lithium-ion batteries mean that we won’t be able to build enough batteries for our energy demands?

The highest-quality ores are finite, but mining can target lower-quality ores as needed.

Proven reserves (commonly cited as the limiting quantity) only reflect exploration and production to date. Actual materials in place are vastly larger, and recoverability depends on technological and economic factors–both of which change dramatically in favor of production when demand creates the necessary incentive.

History shows that there are virtually no examples where supply failed to meet demand as a result of raw material limitations for materials that are not fundamentally scarce. Gold, platinum and gemstones are fundamentally scarce in a way that the metal ingredients in lithium-ion batteries are not. Cobalt, for example, is at least 10,000 times more abundant than gold, but only 50 times more cobalt is produced each year (about 123,000 tonnes) than gold (about 3,200 tonnes) at present.

Temporary supply shortages around material bottlenecks do occur. These shortages typically incentivize additional investment in exploration and production whenever market demand signals that additional investment in supply is warranted.

Grid storage applications don’t require high-performance lithium-ion battery chemistries, and can instead use types of batteries that use only abundant materials. There are six major lithium-ion battery chemistries in commercial production today: lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganese oxide, lithium iron phosphate, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide, lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide and lithium titanate. Lithium itself actually comprises only a small fraction of the battery’s mass–typically less than 5%. Cobalt, manganese and nickel types are the highest-performance chemistries at the moment, and these are also the least-abundant metals. Iron, phosphorus, aluminum and titanium are abundant. 

Explore the evidence...

• Our discussions with mineral experts suggest that the supply volumes of lithium and other minerals required to meet the demand curves shown in our models are achievable. See p30 of our Rethinking Transportation report
• Battery producers have been learning how to use fewer resources and less energy to produce a given unit (kWh) of energy storage. Therefore, the energy footprint of the production of batteries for autonomous electric vehicles has already improved and will likely continue to improve on an exponential basis. See p53 of our Rethinking Transportation report
• Current global lithium reserves exceed 30 million tons (U.S. Geological Survey 2017. Lithium. Retrieved from here), and our estimates calculate that 1 million tons of lithium will be required, per year, by 2030. Mineral supply is often seen as the potential key constraint, as the processes involved in opening a new lithium or cobalt mine and developing the attendant battery-grade refining capacity are complex and can take about three years. But our discussions with mineral experts suggest that the supply volumes required to meet the demand curves shown in our models are achievable. 
• Lithium is a relatively abundant resource, found in many parts of the world. Bolivia and Chile currently have the largest reserves, but it is also found in Canada, Russia, China, Australia and parts of Africa (U.S. Geological Survey, 2017). 
• Lithium-ion batteries can be built with close substitute materials and can be recycled. The disruption is not a one-for-one substitution. See p55 of our Rethinking Transportation report for more information on lithium batteries for electric vehicles
• Our research indicates that the mineral quantities required for battery demand are achievable if there is sufficient advance planning. See p55 of our Rethinking Transportation report.
• Learn more about the energy and resource requirements of this new transportation system on p52-54 of our Transportation report.
  
  
  

Witness the transformation

The disruption of the energy sector by technologies like solar photovoltaics, onshore wind power and lithium-ion batteries is inevitable. There is no fundamental shortage of raw materials or issues of battery storage that will halt this disruption.

Solar, wind and battery power will disproportionately replace old systems with a system that has dramatically different architecture, boundaries and capabilities. Concepts of scarcity will become obsolete.