Energy - How will the disruption play out?
Conventional clean energy scenarios make the common error of misunderstanding that disruptive new technologies will not just replace old ones on a 1-to-1 basis, but transform the system completely...
The Disruption of Energy
During the 2020s, key technologies will converge to completely disrupt the foundational sectors that underpin the global economy; energy, transport and food & agricultures, and with them every major industry in the world today. The knock-on effects for society will be as profound as the extraordinary possibilities that emerge.
The disruption of the energy sector is being driven by several key technologies whose costs and capabilities have been improving on consistent and predictable trajectories – namely, solar photovoltaic power, wind power, and lithium-ion battery energy storage.
Our analysis shows that 100% clean electricity from the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is both physically possible and economically affordable across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world by 2030.
Adoption of SWB is growing exponentially worldwide and disruption is now inevitable, as by 2030 they will offer the cheapest electricity option for most regions.
Coal, gas, and nuclear power assets will become stranded during the 2020s, and no new investment in these technologies is rational from this point forward.
But the replacement of conventional energy technology with SWB is just the beginning. SWB will transform our energy system in fundamental ways...
One of the most extraordinary properties of the new system is that it will produce a superabundance of clean energy output - an increasingly large surplus of energy at near-zero marginal cost - which we call Clean Energy Super Power, or 'Super Power' for short.
- Super Power will be available at near-zero marginal cost throughout much of the year in nearly all populated regions, and create a plethora of opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship.
- Super Power will occur because the new system’s capacities must be designed to fully meet electricity demand during the most challenging times of year , such as the cloudy weeks of winter when the days are shortest, and as a result they are able to produce much more power throughout the rest of the year. A 100% SWB system will therefore produce a surprisingly large amount of super power – in sunny areas, more than twice total electricity demand.
- Examples of super power applications include electrification of road transportation and heating, water desalination and treatment, waste processing and recycling, metal smelting and refining, chemical processing and manufacturing, cryptocurrency mining, cloud computing and communications, and carbon removal.
The new system that emerges will be much larger than the existing one we know today and will have a completely different capabilities, boundaries and architecture...
We will have super-abundant energy for near-zero cost... the possibilities are infinite!
Key Implications of the Disruption
- A 100% SWB system is both physically possible and economically affordable.
- The amount of battery energy storage required to support a 100% SWB system is much lower than is widely believed.
- A 100% SWB system is much more affordable than is widely believed, and will be the cheapest option for electricity generation in most populated areas by 2030.
- The buildout of a 100% SWB system will create millions of jobs.
- The shift to a 100% SWB system could directly eliminate 50% or more of all greenhouse gas emissions.
- Using clean energy super power to electrify all road transportation would reduce total oil demand in the United States by over 60%.
- The superabundance of near-zero marginal cost electricity that results from clean energy super power will have a transformative impact on energy markets, energy-related and energy-intensive industries, and the economy as a whole.
- The exponential buildout of 100% SWB systems is already affordable and can begin immediately.
- Electricity systems must be analyzed based on future rather than current costs.
- The SWB disruption is already inevitable, and is not dependent upon subsidies, carbon taxes, or other market interventions.
- We must rethink efficiency in 100% SWB systems in economic rather than physical terms.
- We must rethink conservation in 100% SWB systems because it is wasteful to not utilize near-zero marginal cost clean energy.
- The SWB disruption of energy will accelerate the disruption of food & agriculture and transportation.
Choices for Decision Makers
This super abundant future is by no means predetermined. Indeed it cannot be achieved by technological progress alone.
Our analysis aims to help policymakers, investors, and other decision makers rethink the future of energy by asking what extraordinary possibilities the new system based on 100% SWB will offer for their regions.
The potential of this system depends on the choices we make today, and the benefits that accrue to those who lead the disruption rather than resist it will be profound...
The advantages of early adoption of SWB far outweigh the investment:
- energy independence
- job creation
- repatriation of industries
- new entrepreneurial opportunities
- cost savings in maintaining the existing fossil infrastructure
- reduced environmental impacts, and
- human health benefits
Our research is a call to leaders across society – public and private – to see what is really happening, to understand the implications, and to redefine the way we all do business, invest, and organize society.
To understand more about the key implications of the SWB energy disruption, read p51-54 of our Rethinking Energy Report
Read the RethinkX 2020-2030 Action Plan for the future on p67-74 of our Rethinking Humanity Report.
Published on: 12/07/23