False. Technology changes in the automotive industry have happened quickly many times before.

In 1908, the year that Ford’s assembly line started, there were about 200,000 cars in the U.S. and 20 million horses—or 100 times as many horses as cars. Even if each car drove six or seven times as much distance each year as a horse, then cars were responsible for only about 6% of combined vehicle miles that year.

But by 1923, just 15 years later, there were 18 million horses and 13 million cars. So, cars were likely responsible for more than 80% of vehicle miles.

We went from essentially all horse-powered travel to all car-powered travel in only a decade and a half.

In 1963, fewer than 10% of new cars had seat belts, but they were in more than 95% of new cars by 1966. Disk brakes became popular over just four years in the 1960s. Power steering went from about 20% of new cars in 1955 to over 80% in 1970.

Now, new cars are changing from combustion-powered to battery electric. (In some parts of the world, like Norway, this market transition is largely complete.) Rapid revolutions are the norm in the automotive industry.

Explore the evidence...

• For more than 400 years, cost curves have proven that as long as there is a cheaper technology on the market, it will disrupt the current way of doing things. Watch this video of RethinkX co-founder Tony Seba and Director of Research Adam Dorr to learn more about how cost curves are predicable, just like gravity.

• Mainstream analysts throughout history have made the same mistakes in failing to anticipate the implication of technology disruptions. Failure to foresee disruption leads to decisions based on flawed scenarios. These can become self-fulfilling prophesies, locking society into a high-cost, uncompetitive future. Learn more about historical examples of failure to prepare for disruptions in this blog post.

• By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of fully autonomous vehicles, 95% of all U.S. passenger miles will be served by Transport-as-a-Service (TaaS) providers who will own and operate fleets of autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs). These will provide passengers with higher levels of service, faster rides and vastly increased safety at a cost up to 10 times cheaper than today’s individually owned vehicles. These fleets will include a wide variety of vehicle types, sizes and configurations that meet every kind of consumer need, from driving children to hauling equipment.

  • To learn more about how electric vehicle (EV) and A-EV adoption will unfold around the world, read page p27-30 of our report Rethinking Transportation.

  • Read p15-19 of our report Rethinking Transportation to learn more about the economics of A-EV and TaaS disruption.

  • p57 of our report Rethinking Transportation shows how the cost of TaaS vehicles will accelerate the speed at which A-EVs and TaaS disrupt the system.

• The disruption of transportation by robotaxis is inevitable. Decarbonising road transport efficiently and cheaply using incentives is a solution we outline in this blog post.

Witness the transformation

The disruption of the transportation sector by robotaxis and TaaS is inevitable. In common with other technology-driven disruptions, the shift to TaaS will be non-linear and follow an S-curve, where TaaS will become progressively cheaper and improve its functionality, while combustion vehicles become ever more expensive to operate and harder to use. 

Learn more about the disruption and transformation of the transportation industry.

Published on: 12/07/23